The evidence holds.
A completed baseball game decided by exactly one run.
40 tagged games · 20 with published analysis
Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians
Petey Halpin flipped the score in the fifth, then Cleveland parceled the last four innings to four relievers and let Cade Smith win the hardest out.
October 15, 2026
Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers
Brice Turang tied it with one swing, but Milwaukee really won this 2-1 game by turning Dodger traffic into outs, from Jacob Misiorowski's bases-loaded escape to DL Hall's four-pitch fifth.
October 12, 2026
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
Fried threw strikes and avoided walks, but Tampa Bay converted three separate two-out chances into all four runs, and Griffin Jax protected the one-run edge.
October 8, 2026
Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres
San Diego turned two third-inning steals and a messy Milwaukee sixth into the runs it needed, then handed the bridge to Bradgley Rodriguez's changeup.
October 7, 2026
Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers
Atlanta and Los Angeles finished with the same hit total, but Michael Harris II, Robert Suarez and Didier Fuentes controlled the innings that actually moved the score.
October 5, 2026
San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee's 4-3 win over San Diego turned on a small-game truth: Ty France kept giving the Padres narrow leads, but Aaron Ashby's escape from a two-on, no-out eighth kept them from buying the extra run that would have closed the door.
October 4, 2026
Milwaukee scored on Chourio’s tying shot and Contreras’ seventh-inning winner, but the real separator was a bullpen that stranded all seven inherited runners.
New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays
Gerrit Cole kept New York in a winnable game, but Tampa Bay never gave that margin back: one Jonathan Aranda homer, eight innings from Drew Rasmussen, and no room to stack baserunners.
October 3, 2026
Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals
Austin Peterson gave Cleveland five useful innings of bulk relief, but Vinnie Pasquantino's two swings on in-zone sinkers became the decisive margin in Kansas City's 3-2 win.
September 27, 2026
Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox
Angel Martinez supplied the only run off Ranger Suarez, but Cleveland’s 1-0 win really turned on two late repair jobs: Hunter Gaddis erased a leadoff walk in the seventh, and Cade Smith owned the ninth with his fastball.
September 24, 2026
Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers
The Rangers manufactured an early 3-0 edge and Cody Bradford protected it through the sixth, but free traffic in the eighth gave Story a 2-2 curveball to flip the game, and Boston finished it with inning-ending double plays in the eighth and ninth.
September 18, 2026
San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals
San Francisco's 6-5 win over St. Louis will be filed under Drew Gilbert's 10th-inning homer. Anthony Molina's scoreless 5.2 innings and Reiver Sanmartin's one-pitch escape explain the game better.
September 16, 2026
Oakland Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays
Griffin Jax's changeup carried five scoreless innings, Jack Perkins kept Tampa Bay on scraps, and Junior Caminero settled the 2-1 Rays win with a ninth-inning homer.
September 15, 2026
St. Louis scored only on Alec Burleson's and Leo Bernal's fifth-inning RBI singles, then got Justin Bruihl's bases-loaded escape in the seventh and a sweeper-heavy Riley O'Brien ninth to keep a 2-1 win intact.
September 14, 2026
Baltimore Orioles at New York Mets
Brandon Young threw 106 pitches through five uneasy innings, Gunnar Henderson broke a 1-1 tie with a two-out homer in the eighth, and four Orioles relievers closed the 2-1 win.
Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays
Jose Soriano gave Toronto six hitless innings, and Kazuma Okamoto briefly reclaimed the lead with a three-run homer. The more decisive work came earlier, when Beau Brieske kept a 2-0 game alive long enough for Detroit's seventh-inning rally to matter.
Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies
Cristian Javier kept Philadelphia to one run in six innings, Zack Wheeler survived a bases-loaded seventh, and Smith supplied the ninth-inning homer that held up.
September 10, 2026
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies
Jesus Luzardo’s complete-game shutout erased Atlanta’s eighth-inning threat, and Kyle Schwarber turned a 2-2 fastball into the lone run of Philadelphia’s 1-0 win.
September 7, 2026
Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians
Detroit built a three-run lead against Foster Griffin, but Hunter Gaddis gave Cleveland two perfect innings and Brayan Rocchio stole second and third before Travis Bazzana's winning single.
September 4, 2026
Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks
Dennis Santana stranded a bases-loaded jam in the seventh, the Diamondbacks scored three two-out runs in the eighth, and Ryan Waldschmidt's 408-foot homer beat Chicago 5-4 in the ninth.
August 26, 2026