Game state, down-and-distance pressure, disruption, and execution
Down, distance, and score state
How exact score progression changes the observable constraint each team faces as the game unfolds.
Disruption and possession change
How sacks, quarterback hits, and tackles for loss show up as disruption outputs on the play sheet.
Passing, rushing, and field effects
How provider week metrics for air yards and time-to-throw, together with game attempts and completions, describe a bounded passing process.
NFL
In the reviewed sample, penalties erased apparent Washington touchdowns against Indianapolis and Seattle, while Seattle's three turnovers led to 20 Washington points on or after takeaways.
Updated November 2, 2026
In the reviewed sample, Tennessee was outgained by Baltimore and Philadelphia; a penalty and sack increased the distance before a punt against the Jets, while an interception ended a late chance against the Giants.
Against Green Bay, Minnesota and Cleveland, losses and penalties created long-yardage situations. Tampa Bay converted one penalty-created third-and-long but punted after other setbacks.
Across the four reviewed games, San Francisco outgained each opponent. Its yardage edge included a substantial rushing advantage against Denver and the Rams.
