The evidence holds.
A completed football game decided by eight or fewer points.
60 tagged games · 60 with published analysis
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Miami turned a recovery at New England's 19 into three points. The Patriots turned Kevin Byard's interception into seven—and an 11-point fourth-quarter lead.
November 1, 2026
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
Kansas City had the yardage advantage. Denver had a fourth-down touchdown, Singleton's six-yard setback and Malcolm Roach's finish. The late comeback turned on what each remaining chance required.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
Gibbs and Vaki supplied four first downs on the winning touchdown series. McNeill and Rolder made Minnesota work through longer yardage. Goff finished with two yards that were plenty.
Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets
New York's yardage advantage was real. But a penalty-created deficit, a stalled possession after a long completion and a one-yard Raiders conversion show why totals cannot explain possession value.
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers
Four third-down touchdowns gave the Packers more than a conversion-rate edge. Two sacks pushed Carolina into longer fourth downs before field goals.
October 30, 2026
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
Jake Bates supplied the final three points. DJ Wonnum preserved the tie, and two late first downs gave Detroit the sequence that ended with the winning kick.
October 25, 2026
Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans
The Browns gained 491 yards to the Titans' 322. But a holding penalty stretched one promising possession, and Cam Ward twice rescued Tennessee's late tying drive.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
New York gained more yards. Miami's sharper advantages came in what happened next: a goal-line retreat, a fourth-down extension before halftime and a conversion that closed the game.
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings
Daniel Jones took four sacks and Kyler Murray three. The difference in yards lost was much wider—and the consequences become clear at the possession level.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints
New Orleans produced more net passing yards, but Payton Wilson's interception and two fourth-quarter setbacks exposed the difference between extending possessions and finishing them.
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears
New England's late gains fell short after penalties and a split sack. Chicago found a touchdown and a 58-yard field goal after sacks of Caleb Williams.
October 23, 2026
Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers
Antonio Williams caught all three of Washington's third-down conversions. Late penalties kept changing what those gains were worth in a 23–17 loss to San Francisco.
October 20, 2026
Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders
Las Vegas had the yardage and third-down edge. The sharper distinction was what each team got from renewed chances—and the cushion Buffalo's late field goal provided.
October 18, 2026
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
Stafford's passing-yard edge disappeared under 28 yards of sack losses. The Rams still found a late lead. Chad Ryland's sixth field goal took it back.
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants
New York had the yardage advantage. New Orleans converted a recovered kickoff fumble and two interceptions into scores—but a later takeaway showed why winning possession was only the first step.
New York Jets at New England Patriots
New England conceded field goals after two fumbles without surrendering its lead. Then Hunter Henry's third-down conversion and eight straight Corey Kiner carries changed the Jets' remaining problem.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
The Titans won 26–20 with 186 yards of offense. Chimere Dike shortened a scoring field; Carnell Tate and Wan’Dale Robinson kept key possessions alive.
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons
The Bears survived third-and-11 and third-and-17, then scored after both of Zachariah Branch's return turnovers. Atlanta's late push broke on a holding penalty and a lost fumble.
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
The winning retry owns the ending. The third-down conversions that got Cleveland there—and the disruption that stalled Baltimore—explain the work behind it.
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
An erased touchdown, a nullified punt and a first-and-1 explain more than the penalty-yardage totals. Houston still had to finish the opportunities.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Seattle finished ahead in quarterback passing yards but behind in net passing yards. Gracen Halton's contributions help explain why lost ground and turnover-created opportunities deserve attention.
October 11, 2026
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
The Broncos went 1-for-12 on third down, but a fourth-down stop and two fourth-quarter takeaways supplied the possessions that turned 17–10 into 23–17.
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins
Miami won the yardage comparison, but Dohnte Meyers shortened Cincinnati's opening task and two sack sequences changed the distance to points.
Cleveland Browns at New York Jets
The Browns had a 12–10 lead and the ball after Carson Schwesinger's sack-fumble. A fumbled punt returned possession to New York, and Braelon Allen supplied the touchdown.
Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars
Twice, the Jaguars reached Philadelphia's 1 and came away empty. Ameer Abdullah's late return and Cam Little's 57-yard field goal supplied the finish those possessions lacked.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys
Takeaways opened the door. Jalon Daniels' long-yardage completions sustained two scoring possessions, and Bucky Irving supplied the late first down.
October 9, 2026
Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers
Carolina kept a scoring possession alive through two passing conversions. Detroit later doubled its fourth-down distance before a 13-yard gain fell short.
October 5, 2026
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
A third-down conversion kept the Chiefs' chance alive. A kickoff-return fumble then denied the Raiders an offensive reply between Kenneth Walker III touchdowns.
October 4, 2026
Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks
Seattle turned a punt muff, an interception and a nullified field-goal miss into points. Its own penalties then prolonged a Chargers touchdown possession before the final fumble sealed a 30–23 win.
Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings
Will Reichard supplied all 15 points against Miami. Minnesota's first-down advantage and the different outcomes after two third-down conversions tell the deeper story.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Doubs twice converted fourth down on possessions he later finished with touchdowns. Those extensions offer a sharper explanation of New England's narrow win than the yardage advantage alone.
Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans
Houston gained more yards per play in a 34-30 loss, but two short penalties renewed Dallas's scoring opportunities before a Javonte Williams touchdown.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals
Strange extended Jacksonville's late possession without ending the contest. Cincinnati's last completion then fell one yard short of a first down.
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia led 20–10 but finished without a third-down conversion. Kyren Williams extended the Rams' go-ahead possession, then Byron Young made the reply harder.
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore converted an early fourth down and stopped Tennessee on another. Carnell Tate's late rescue came with a 14-point deficit still to solve.
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Packers turned three short fourth downs into their first touchdown. Tampa Bay's late chances faced a different problem: too much ground to recover.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
The Browns created difficult downs, then surrendered fresh ones before two Pittsburgh touchdowns. Andre Szmyt's 56-yard winner settled a game Cleveland could not close cleanly.
October 2, 2026
Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos
Denver erased a 16-point deficit with two touchdowns and two conversions. Hufanga's fourth quarter then brought a third-down sack, a temporary lead and the final stop.
September 28, 2026
Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints
The turnovers supplied the openings. Las Vegas finished both ensuing possessions with touchdowns, changing New Orleans' problem from protecting a lead to finding eight points.
September 27, 2026
Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys
A holding call erased an apparent conversion. A late false start pushed Dallas back from the Baltimore 2. Those setbacks explain the missed opportunities more precisely than blaming either penalty for the result.
Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Aaron Jones Sr. extended Minnesota's fourth-quarter scoring chance. Despite a sack and two penalties, Reichard turned it into a four-point lead.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
Arizona overcame a sack and kept converting. San Francisco answered a different way: two fourth-quarter touchdowns restored nine-point leads and made the Cardinals keep chasing.
Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders
Seattle gained 179 more yards, but Washington scored 20 points on or after takeaways. Preserving possessions supplied the other part of its 33–31 win.
Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns
Cleveland won 21-18 without winning the yardage comparison. Watson's third-down runs, a late penalty reprieve and Fannin's touchdown catches explain how its opportunities survived and paid off.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
A wiped-out punt reopened Pittsburgh's offense while it trailed 20-17. Jaylen Warren helped supply the yards; the touchdown still had to be earned.
Tennessee Titans at New York Giants
New York turned second-and-2 into second-and-17, then gave Tennessee a late first down. Zvada's four field goals and Holland's interception were enough for a 12-7 win.
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills
C.J. Gardner-Johnson contained the immediate cost of Josh Allen's lost fumble. James Cook supplied the go-ahead gains, and Greg Rousseau helped shut down a late Chargers response.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
A 77-yard advantage did not mean a cleaner offensive game. Indianapolis won 19-17 with 13 points from Shrader, including a 53-yard winner with 16 seconds left.
New York Jets at Detroit Lions
A penalty erased one down-and-distance advantage; a fourth-down touchdown overcame another. Isaac TeSlaa's 49-yard catch gave Detroit an offensive answer.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos
Denver erased a 10-point deficit before Jacksonville's late penalties turned second-and-10 into first-and-goal at the 3. Jonah Coleman finished the opportunity.
September 20, 2026
Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The cost of Tampa Bay's flags went beyond yards: longer conversion attempts for its offense and a fresh first down before Cleveland's tying touchdown.
New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens
Devaughn Vele and Juwan Johnson supplied third-and-13 escapes. Young supplied the backward steps. Those battles help explain a seven-point Saints win.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
A recovery at the 1 and a blocked tying attempt kept the Vikings ahead before Dallas Turner's final sack ended Chicago's last chance.
Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans
Tyjae Spears converted third-and-22, but Carter sent the Titans backward. Their three-point lead did not survive Jalen Hurts’ late touchdown.
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
New York recovered from losses and penalties to extend scoring chances, then protected its lead with two late third-down catches.
September 14, 2026
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
Two long-yardage recoveries led to Eagles touchdowns before Washington’s final score left a two-point problem.
September 13, 2026
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
Buffalo's 36-31 win took more than Joshua Palmer's late touchdown. Deone Walker pushed Houston back, and Greg Rousseau forced the fumble that ended its final possession.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals made four Tampa Bay fumbles worth 24 points, extending three ensuing possessions on third down before scoring.
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Falcons twice erased gains with holding penalties, then a late sack turned a promising position into fourth-and-14.
New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks lost a touchdown and extended a Patriots opportunity with penalties. A late sack changed the distance New England needed on its final sequence.
September 10, 2026