MLB

September 20, 2026 · Busch Stadium

Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals Game Analysis — September 20, 2026

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WSH010002000371
STL10100003—560

Scoring path

Follow the scoring sequence from the first run to the final margin.

WSHScoreSTL
  1. 1
    0–1
    Supports the analysis

    Herrera homered to left (375 feet).

  2. 2
    Supports the analysis

    Young hit sacrifice fly to center, Lile scored, Ford to second.

    1–1
  3. 3
    1–2
    Supports the analysis

    Wetherholt singled to right, Fermín scored.

  4. 6
    Supports the analysis

    Abrams homered to right (397 feet), House scored.

    3–2
  5. 8
    3–3
    Supports the analysis

    Herrera homered to left center (439 feet).

  6. 3–5
    Supports the analysis

    Bernal homered to center (424 feet), Walker scored.

Key observations by inning

Read the plays and performances in chronological order, or filter the view by team.

  1. 1–7

    Starting Pitching Performance

    Quinn Mathews

    Quinn Mathews completed 7.0 innings for St. Louis on 96 pitches, allowing three runs on seven hits and two walks while striking out three.

    pitches
    96
    innings appeared
    1–7
  2. 1–8 · linked

    Game State Shift

    Game State Shift

    The lead changed three times during the game: St. Louis led 2-1 in the third, Washington moved ahead 3-2 in the sixth, and St. Louis retook the lead 5-3 in the eighth.

  3. ▼ 3

    Base Out State

    Jose Fermin · JJ Wetherholt · Jake Irvin

    In the bottom of the third inning, Jose Fermin hit a leadoff double, advanced to third base on an Irvin wild pitch, and scored on a single by JJ Wetherholt.

  4. ▲ 6

    Scoring Sequence

    CJ Abrams · Brady House · Quinn Mathews

    In the top of the sixth inning, CJ Abrams hit a two-run home run off Quinn Mathews following a Brady House single, turning a 2-1 deficit into a 3-2 Washington lead.

    Quinn Mathews pitch selection by count

    Observed pitch-type mix across 4 count groups (96 valid pitches).

    Observed pitch-type mix across 4 count groups (96 valid pitches).

    Observed pitch-type mix across 4 count groups (96 valid pitches).
  5. ▲8–▼8

    Late-inning Scoring Rally

    Ivan Herrera · Leo Bernal · Erik Tolman · Yovanny Cruz

    In the bottom of the eighth inning, the St. Louis Cardinals overturned a 3-2 deficit with two home runs: a game-tying solo shot by Ivan Herrera off Erik Tolman and a go-ahead two-run home run by Leo Bernal off Yovanny Cruz.

    Bottom of the 8th — bases and outs

    5 plate-appearance transitions in the bottom of inning 8.

    5 plate-appearance transitions in the bottom of inning 8.

    5 plate-appearance transitions in the bottom of inning 8.
  6. ▼ 8

    Two-out Plate Appearance

    Leo Bernal · Yovanny Cruz

    In the eighth inning with two outs, Leo Bernal extended his plate appearance against Yovanny Cruz by fouling off three consecutive two-strike pitches before hitting a 92.1 mph slider for a go-ahead two-run home run.

    Washington Nationals pitcher deployment

    Observed pitching-staff sequence by inning (4 pitchers, 3 subsequent).

    Observed pitching-staff sequence by inning (4 pitchers, 3 subsequent).

    Observed pitching-staff sequence by inning (4 pitchers, 3 subsequent).
  7. ▲9–▼9

    Pitch Pattern

    Riley O'Brien

    Riley O'Brien converted the save in the ninth inning by throwing six pitches, all for strikes, across three sinkers, two sweepers, and one slider.

What this game can—and can’t tell us

WSHSTLShared

See what the reviewed evidence supports—and where its limits are.

  • Quinn Mathews did the expensive part of the win

    High

    Quinn Mathews completed seven full innings of three-run ball on 96 pitches.

    Evidence

    • Quinn Mathews · 7 IP · 7 H · 3 ER · 3 K · 2 BB · 96 pitches
    • Quinn Mathews · 96 pitches · innings 1–7

    Not implied

    • Does not imply tactical satisfaction or managerial intent regarding pitch limits.

    Limitations

    • Workload summary limits apply regarding official batters faced vs record count.
    Quinn MathewsSt. Louis Cardinals
  • Washington's sixth-inning lead never became separation

    High

    Abrams gave Washington a temporary 3-2 lead in the sixth inning with a two-run homer.

    Evidence

    Top 6th

    • Abrams homered to right (397 feet), House scored.
    • House singled to left.

    Top 6

    • Brady House vs Quinn Mathews
    • CJ Abrams vs Quinn Mathews
    • Base/out transitions · Top 6

    Not implied

    • Does not imply pitch-execution failure or predictive platoon dominance.

    Limitations

    • Limited to the specific sequence and does not evaluate Mathews' pitch selection.
    CJ AbramsBrady HouseQuinn MathewsWashington Nationals
  • The eighth was two swings, not a rally

    High

    The Cardinals took a 5-3 lead in the eighth inning via solo and two-run home runs by Herrera and Bernal.

    Evidence

    • Score after inning 8: 0–3

    Bottom 8th

    • Herrera homered to left center (439 feet).
    • Bernal homered to center (424 feet), Walker scored.

    Bottom 8

    • Ivan Herrera vs Erik Tolman
    • Leo Bernal vs Yovanny Cruz
    • Base/out transitions · Bottom 8

    Not implied

    • Does not imply pre-game tactical design or bullpen mismanagement beyond the recorded outcomes.
    • Does not imply season-long clutch tendencies for Herrera or Bernal.

    Limitations

    • Describes the recorded sequence of scoring plays and does not imply pitcher intent or tactical errors.
    St. Louis CardinalsIvan HerreraLeo BernalErik TolmanYovanny Cruz
  • Bernal turned a strikeout count into the decisive at-bat

    Medium

    Bernal fouled off three two-strike pitches in a seven-pitch sequence before hitting Cruz's slider for a go-ahead home run.

    Evidence

    Bottom 8

    • Leo Bernal vs Yovanny Cruz
    • 4-Seam Fastball · 100.5 mph · Ball
    • Slider · 91.9 mph · Swinging Strike
    • Slider · 91.2 mph · Swinging Strike
    • Slider · 91 mph · Foul
    • Sinker · 100.3 mph · Foul
    • Splitter · 89.5 mph · Foul
    • Slider · 92.1 mph · In play, run(s)

    Bottom 8

    • Bernal homered to center (424 feet), Walker scored.

    Not implied

    • Does not imply Cruz made an intentional mistake pitch or that Bernal anticipated the slider.
    • Does not establish a career clutch profile.

    Limitations

    • Telemetry describes this isolated plate appearance and does not define Bernal's overall approach.
    Leo BernalYovanny CruzSt. Louis Cardinals