MLB

October 24, 2026 · American Family Field

Tampa Bay Rays at Milwaukee Brewers Game Analysis — October 24, 2026

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TB400000000471
MIL20010110—5111

Scoring path

Follow the scoring sequence from the first run to the final margin.

TBScoreMIL
  1. 1
    Supports the analysis

    Simpson singled to center, Díaz scored.

    1–0
  2. Supports the analysis

    Caminero singled to left, Simpson scored.

    2–0
  3. Supports the analysis

    Hicks homered to right center (411 feet), Caminero scored.

    4–0
  4. 4–1
    Supports the analysis

    Contreras singled to center, Chourio scored, Bauers to third.

  5. 4–2
    Supports the analysis

    Mitchell singled to right, Bauers scored, Contreras to third.

  6. 4
    4–3
    Supports the analysis

    Pratt scored on error, Hamilton safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Aranda, Frelick to second.

  7. 6
    4–4
    Supports the analysis

    Frelick homered to center (408 feet).

  8. 7
    4–5

    Pratt singled to right, Turang scored.

Key observations by inning

Read the plays and performances in chronological order, or filter the view by team.

  1. ▲ 1

    Scoring Sequence

    Chandler Simpson · Junior Caminero · Liam Hicks

    Tampa Bay built a 4-0 lead in the first inning on three consecutive run-scoring plays: an RBI single by Chandler Simpson, an RBI single by Junior Caminero, and a two-run home run by Liam Hicks.

  2. ▲1–▼1

    Scoring Sequence

    Logan Henderson · Chandler Simpson · Junior Caminero · Liam Hicks

    Tampa Bay scored four runs in the top of the first inning against Logan Henderson through three consecutive run-scoring plate appearances with one out, featuring RBI singles by Chandler Simpson and Junior Caminero followed by Liam Hicks's two-run home run.

  3. ▲1–▼1

    Game State Shift

    William Contreras · Garrett Mitchell

    Milwaukee answered Tampa Bay's four-run first inning by scoring two runs on four hits in the bottom of the first inning, cutting the deficit to 4-2 on RBI singles from William Contreras and Garrett Mitchell.

  4. 1–3

    Pitch Pattern

    Logan Henderson

    Logan Henderson threw 28 changeups (43.8% usage) and 31 four-seam fastballs (48.4% usage) over 64 pitches in 3.0 innings, recording four strikeouts while allowing four runs.

    pitches
    64
    innings appeared
    1–3
  5. 1–3 · linked

    Matchup Effect

    William Contreras

    William Contreras recorded two hits, one RBI, and one stolen base in five plate appearances, including an RBI single in the first inning.

  6. 1–4

    Starting Pitcher Workload

    Drew Rasmussen

    Tampa Bay starting pitcher Drew Rasmussen threw 89 pitches over 3.2 innings, allowing three earned runs on six hits and two walks with four strikeouts before departing with two outs and the bases loaded in the fourth inning.

    pitches
    89
    innings appeared
    1–4
  7. 1–9

    1–9

    Analysis

    Milwaukee overcame a four-run first-inning deficit to defeat Tampa Bay 5-4, scoring five unanswered runs across four separate innings while outhitting the Rays 11 to 7.

  8. 4–6 · linked

    Player Influence

    Sal Frelick

    Sal Frelick recorded two hits in four at-bats, including a single in the fourth inning and a game-tying solo home run to center field in the sixth inning.

  9. 4–9 · linked

    Player Influence

    Jonny DeLuca

    Jonny DeLuca recorded two of Tampa Bay's seven hits, hitting a single in the fourth inning and a leadoff double in the ninth inning.

  10. ▼ 4

    Bullpen Usage

    Cam Booser · Christian Yelich

    Cam Booser entered with two outs and the bases loaded in the bottom of the fourth inning and retired Christian Yelich on a groundout, stranding all three inherited runners.

  11. ▼ 4

    Game Frame

    Jonathan Aranda · Cooper Pratt

    Tampa Bay committed one fielding error and Milwaukee committed one fielding error, with Milwaukee's fourth-inning run scoring as a direct result of an error by first baseman Jonathan Aranda.

  12. ▲6–▼6

    Plate Appearance

    Sal Frelick · Ian Seymour

    Sal Frelick's nine-pitch plate appearance leading off the bottom of the sixth inning altered the game state, as he fouled off four pitches before hitting a 408-foot solo home run off Ian Seymour to tie the score at 4-4.

    Tampa Bay Rays pitcher deployment

    Observed pitching-staff sequence by inning (6 pitchers, 5 subsequent).

    Observed pitching-staff sequence by inning (6 pitchers, 5 subsequent).

    Observed pitching-staff sequence by inning (6 pitchers, 5 subsequent).
  13. ▲6–▼6

    Two-out Run Prevention

    DL Hall · Liam Hicks · Victor Mesa Jr.

    In the top of the sixth inning, Milwaukee preserved a one-run deficit when Liam Hicks was thrown out at home plate on Victor Mesa Jr.'s two-out single, preventing Tampa Bay from extending its 4-3 lead immediately before Milwaukee tied the game.

    Top of the 6th — bases and outs

    3 plate-appearance transitions in the top of inning 6.

    3 plate-appearance transitions in the top of inning 6.

    3 plate-appearance transitions in the top of inning 6.
  14. 7–8

    Bullpen Usage

    Abner Uribe

    Abner Uribe earned the win in relief by pitching 1.1 hitless innings across the seventh and eighth innings, allowing one walk and striking out one on 26 pitches.

  15. ▲ 8

    Substitution Window

    Ryan Vilade · Liam Hicks · Aaron Ashby

    In the top of the eighth inning with one out, Tampa Bay pinch-hit Ryan Vilade for Liam Hicks against Aaron Ashby, with Vilade striking out swinging on six pitches.

  16. 8–9 · linked

    Late-inning Save Situation

    Aaron Ashby

    Aaron Ashby preserved Milwaukee's 5-4 lead across 1.2 scoreless innings to earn the save, stranding a leadoff double in the ninth inning by striking out Victor Mesa Jr. and Yandy Díaz around a productive groundout.

    Aaron Ashby pitch selection by count

    Observed pitch-type mix across 4 count groups (28 valid pitches).

    Observed pitch-type mix across 4 count groups (28 valid pitches).

    Observed pitch-type mix across 4 count groups (28 valid pitches).

What this game can—and can’t tell us

TBMILShared

See what the reviewed evidence supports—and where its limits are.

  • A comeback built one run at a time

    High

    It is safe to state Milwaukee rallied from a 4-0 deficit to win 5-4 with 11 hits compared to Tampa Bay's 7.

    Evidence

    • Final score 4–5
    • Milwaukee Brewers
    • Tampa Bay Rays
    • Score after inning 1: 4–2
    • Score after inning 2: 0–0
    • Score after inning 3: 0–0
    • Score after inning 4: 0–1
    • Score after inning 5: 0–0
    • Score after inning 6: 0–1
    • Score after inning 7: 0–1
    • Score after inning 8: 0–0

    Not implied

    • This does not imply psychological momentum or team mentality.
    • This does not imply Tampa Bay collapsed or stopped competing.
    • This does not establish season-long comeback trends.

    Limitations

    • Summarizes game outcome and aggregate totals without detailed tactical breakdown.
  • The out at the plate that kept one swing in play

    Medium

    It is safe to report Milwaukee maintained a 4-3 deficit in the sixth inning by throwing out Hicks at home on Mesa Jr.'s single.

    Evidence

    Top 6

    • Liam Hicks vs DL Hall
    • Richie Palacios vs DL Hall
    • Jonny DeLuca vs DL Hall
    • Victor Mesa Jr. vs DL Hall
    • Hicks hit by pitch.
    • Palacios hit sacrifice bunt to third, Hicks to second.
    • DeLuca struck out swinging.
    • Mesa Jr. singled to left, Hicks thrown out at home. Tampa Bay Rays challenged: call on the field was upheld.
    • Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
    • Base/out transitions · Top 6
    • Score after inning 6: 0–1

    Not implied

    • This does not imply Tampa Bay's third-base coach made an unforced error.
    • This does not prove the out at home caused Milwaukee's subsequent home run.
    • This does not establish permanent defensive ratings for the outfield unit.

    Limitations

    • Does not evaluate third-base coach decision models or runner speed tracking.
    Milwaukee BrewersTampa Bay RaysDL HallLiam HicksVictor Mesa Jr.
  • Frelick earned a ninth pitch and did not waste it

    Medium

    It is safe to state Frelick tied the game 4-4 with a 408-foot solo home run on the ninth pitch of the plate appearance after fouling off four pitches.

    Evidence

    Bottom 6

    • Sal Frelick vs Ian Seymour
    • Bottom 6 · Sal Frelick vs Ian Seymour · Home Run
    • Sinker · 90.1 mph · Called Strike
    • 4-Seam Fastball · 91.5 mph · Ball
    • Sinker · 91.3 mph · Ball
    • 4-Seam Fastball · 93.1 mph · Foul
    • Sinker · 91.9 mph · Foul
    • 4-Seam Fastball · 93.1 mph · Ball
    • Sinker · 91.8 mph · Foul
    • 4-Seam Fastball · 92.6 mph · Foul
    • 4-Seam Fastball · 92.9 mph · In play, run(s)
    • Pitch 9 : Ball In Play

    Bottom 6

    • Frelick homered to center (408 feet).
    • Score after inning 6: 0–1
    • Base/out transitions · Bottom 6

    Not implied

    • This does not prove Seymour made a mechanical mistake on the home run pitch.
    • This does not prove Frelick intended to prolong the at-bat to wear down the pitcher.
    • This does not establish a season-long trend against left-handed pitching.

    Limitations

    • Evidence does not include scouting reports, swing plans, or pitcher fatigue tracking.
    Sal FrelickIan SeymourMilwaukee Brewers
  • Ashby made the last ninety feet feel very long

    Medium

    It is safe to state Ashby stranded the potential tying run at third base in the ninth inning with two strikeouts to complete a 1.2-inning save.

    Evidence

    • Aaron Ashby · 1.2 IP · 1 H · 0 ER · 3 K · 0 BB · 28 pitches

    Top 8

    • Ryan Vilade vs Aaron Ashby
    • Richie Palacios vs Aaron Ashby

    Top 9

    • Jonny DeLuca vs Aaron Ashby
    • Victor Mesa Jr. vs Aaron Ashby
    • Ben Williamson vs Aaron Ashby
    • Yandy Diaz vs Aaron Ashby
    • Ashby relieved Uribe
    • Vilade struck out swinging.
    • Palacios grounded out to second.
    • Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
    • DeLuca doubled to right.
    • Mesa Jr. struck out swinging.
    • Williamson grounded out to second, DeLuca to third.
    • Díaz struck out swinging.
    • Base/out transitions · Top 9

    Not implied

    • This does not imply Ashby was guaranteed to succeed or that his pitch locations were executed to plan.
    • This does not establish a permanent closer role.
    • This does not imply Tampa Bay hitters chased out-of-zone pitches due to deception.

    Limitations

    • Does not prove pre-game bullpen deployment planning or pitch-selection intent.