MLB

October 3, 2026 · American Family Field

San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers Game Analysis — October 3, 2026

Team123456789RHE
SD020000000291
MIL00200010—370

Scoring path

Follow the scoring sequence from the first run to the final margin.

SDScoreMIL
  1. 2

    Campusano singled to right, Bogaerts scored, Salas to third.

    1–0
  2. Cronenworth grounded into fielder's choice to first, Salas scored, Campusano to second.

    2–0
  3. 3
    2–2
    Supports the analysis

    Chourio homered to left center (420 feet), Mitchell scored.

  4. 7
    2–3
    Supports the analysis

    Contreras homered to center (406 feet).

Key observations by inning

Read the plays and performances in chronological order, or filter the view by team.

  1. 1–3

    Bullpen Usage

    Robbie Ray

    San Diego starter Robbie Ray exited after 2.2 innings and 45 pitches, having surrendered four hits, two walks, and two earned runs.

    pitches
    45
    innings appeared
    1–3
  2. 1–9 · linked

    Player Influence

    Dustin Harris

    Dustin Harris reached base three times in five plate appearances for San Diego, tallying two hits and a walk.

  3. ▲3–▼3

    Game-tying Scoring Sequence

    Jackson Chourio · Robbie Ray · Garrett Mitchell

    In the bottom of the third inning with one out and a runner on second base trailing 2-0, Jackson Chourio hit a game-tying two-run home run off Robbie Ray to equalize the contest at 2-2.

    Robbie Ray pitch selection by count

    Observed pitch-type mix across 4 count groups (45 valid pitches).

    Observed pitch-type mix across 4 count groups (45 valid pitches).

    Observed pitch-type mix across 4 count groups (45 valid pitches).
  4. 3–4

    Bases-loaded Relief Escape

    Bradgley Rodriguez · Cooper Pratt

    Entering with the bases loaded and two outs in the bottom of the third inning in a 2-2 game, San Diego reliever Bradgley Rodriguez threw three consecutive sinkers to retire Cooper Pratt on an inning-ending forceout, stranding all three inherited runners.

  5. ▲ 4

    Base Out State

    Luis Campusano · Ethan Salas · Jacob Misiorowski

    In the top of the fourth inning, Milwaukee erased a leadoff baserunner when Luis Campusano grounded into a 6-4-3 double play following an Ethan Salas strikeout and wild-pitch advance.

  6. 5–9

    Bullpen High-leverage Inherited Runner Situations

    Aaron Ashby · DL Hall · Trevor Megill

    Across the fifth, seventh, and eighth innings, Milwaukee relievers Aaron Ashby, DL Hall, and Trevor Megill each entered with two outs and runners aboard, preventing all seven inherited runners from scoring to keep San Diego from taking or retaking the lead.

    Milwaukee Brewers pitcher deployment

    Observed pitching-staff sequence by inning (6 pitchers, 5 subsequent).

    Observed pitching-staff sequence by inning (6 pitchers, 5 subsequent).

    Observed pitching-staff sequence by inning (6 pitchers, 5 subsequent).
  7. ▲7–▼7

    Go-ahead Scoring Play

    William Contreras · Adrian Morejon

    In the bottom of the seventh inning with two outs and the bases empty in a 2-2 tie, William Contreras hit a go-ahead solo home run off Adrian Morejon to give Milwaukee a 3-2 lead.

    William Contreras vs Adrian Morejon

    Pitch sequence for pa_062 in bottom of inning 7 (Home Run): 6 located pitches.

    Pitch sequence for pa_062 in bottom of inning 7 (Home Run): 6 located pitches.

    Pitch sequence for pa_062 in bottom of inning 7 (Home Run): 6 located pitches.

What this game can—and can’t tell us

SDMILShared

See what the reviewed evidence supports—and where its limits are.

  • Milwaukee stranded all seven inherited runners

    Medium

    Milwaukee's bullpen successfully prevented all seven inherited runners from scoring across three critical two-out jams in the fifth, seventh, and eighth innings.

    Evidence

    • Aaron Ashby · 1.2 IP · 0 H · 0 ER · 1 K · 0 BB · 23 pitches
    • DL Hall · 1 IP · 0 H · 0 ER · 0 K · 2 BB · 20 pitches · W
    • Trevor Megill · 1.1 IP · 1 H · 0 ER · 2 K · 0 BB · 17 pitches

    Top 5

    • Jackson Merrill vs Aaron Ashby

    Top 7

    • Jackson Merrill vs DL Hall

    Top 8

    • Fernando Tatis Jr. vs Trevor Megill
    • Ashby relieved Senzatela
    • Merrill flied out to center.
    • Hall relieved Uribe
    • Merrill flied out to left.
    • Megill relieved Hall
    • Tatis Jr. struck out swinging.
    • Aaron Ashby · bullpen · 23 pitches · innings 5–7
    • DL Hall · bullpen · 20 pitches · innings 7–8
    • Trevor Megill · bullpen · 17 pitches · innings 8–9

    Not implied

    • Does not imply that the bullpen deployment was optimal or intended before the game.
    • Does not imply season-long bullpen dominance.

    Limitations

    • Does not prove managerial intent or optimized bullpen strategy beyond the observed game outcomes.
    Aaron AshbyDL HallTrevor MegillMilwaukee BrewersSan Diego Padres
  • Rodriguez stranded all three in the third

    Medium

    Bradgley Rodriguez prevented any runs from scoring in a bases-loaded, two-out jam in the third inning by inducing an inning-ending forceout.

    Evidence

    Bottom 3

    • Cooper Pratt vs Bradgley Rodriguez
    • Sinker · 99.1 mph · Ball
    • Sinker · 99.4 mph · Called Strike
    • Sinker · 99.1 mph · In play, out(s)
    • Rodriguez relieved Ray
    • Pratt grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Bauers out at second.
    • Bradgley Rodriguez · 1.1 IP · 0 H · 0 ER · 2 K · 1 BB · 19 pitches
    • Bradgley Rodriguez · bullpen · 19 pitches · innings 3–4

    Not implied

    • Does not imply long-term high-leverage bullpen hierarchy or future leverage role assignment.

    Limitations

    • Does not prove strategic pitch selection intent beyond the observed sequence.
    Bradgley RodriguezCooper PrattSan Diego Padres
  • Chourio erased the Padres’ early lead

    High

    Jackson Chourio hit a two-run home run in the bottom of the third inning off Robbie Ray that tied the game 2-2.

    Evidence

    Bottom 3

    • Jackson Chourio vs Robbie Ray
    • Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    Bottom 3

    • Chourio homered to left center (420 feet), Mitchell scored.
    • Score after inning 3: 0–2
    • Jackson Chourio · 1-for-4 · 1 HR
    • Robbie Ray · 2.2 IP · 4 H · 2 ER · 1 K · 2 BB · 45 pitches

    Not implied

    • Does not imply overarching batter approach beyond this single scoring sequence.
    Jackson ChourioRobbie RayGarrett MitchellMilwaukee Brewers
  • Contreras broke the tie in the seventh

    High

    William Contreras hit a decisive solo home run off Adrian Morejon with two outs in the bottom of the seventh inning to put Milwaukee ahead 3-2.

    Evidence

    Bottom 7

    • William Contreras vs Adrian Morejon
    • Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    Bottom 7

    • Contreras homered to center (406 feet).
    • Score after inning 7: 0–1
    • William Contreras · 1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1 BB
    • Adrian Morejon · 2 IP · 3 H · 1 ER · 2 K · 0 BB · 31 pitches · L

    Not implied

    • Does not imply predictive future performance or guaranteed outcome against left-handed relief pitching.
    William ContrerasAdrian MorejonMilwaukee Brewers