MLB

October 4, 2026 · American Family Field

San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers Game Analysis — October 4, 2026

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SD100010100352
MIL000010102453

Scoring path

Follow the scoring sequence from the first run to the final margin.

SDScoreMIL
  1. 1
    Supports the analysis

    France singled to center, Machado scored.

    1–0
  2. 5

    Harris grounded into fielder's choice to second. Campusano scored, Harris safe at second on throwing error by shortstop Pratt. Tatis Jr. out at second.

    2–0
  3. 2–1

    Frelick singled to left, Yelich scored.

  4. 7
    Supports the analysis

    France singled to right, Tatis Jr. scored, Machado thrown out at third.

    3–1
  5. 3–2
    Supports the analysis

    Hamilton reaches on fielding error by second baseman Cronenworth. Mitchell scored, Pratt to third, Hamilton to second on throwing error by second baseman Cronenworth.

  6. 9
    3–4

    Chourio singled to center, Frelick scored and Yelich scored, Ortiz to second.

Key observations by inning

Read the plays and performances in chronological order, or filter the view by team.

  1. 1–6

    Starting Pitcher Performance

    Logan Henderson · Michael King

    Starting pitchers Logan Henderson and Michael King each completed five innings while throwing exactly 72 pitches and allowing one earned run, with King yielding three hits and Henderson surrendering two.

    pitches
    72
    innings appeared
    1–6
  2. 1–7 · linked

    Offensive Run Production

    Ty France

    Ty France drove in two of San Diego's three runs, delivering two-out RBI singles in both the first and seventh innings while also reaching base via a hit-by-pitch in the sixth.

  3. 1–7 · linked

    Player Influence

    Manny Machado

    Manny Machado drew two walks and scored San Diego's first run in the opening frame after advancing on a wild pitch.

  4. 1–9

    Scoring Sequence

    Scoring Sequence

    Both teams were held scoreless in the second, third, fourth, sixth, and eighth innings, with all seven runs in the contest scored across innings one, five, seven, and nine.

  5. ▼ 2

    Early-inning Strikeout Sequence

    Michael King · William Contreras · Garrett Mitchell · Christian Yelich

    In the bottom of the second inning, Michael King struck out William Contreras, Garrett Mitchell, and Christian Yelich consecutively, finishing each plate appearance with a swinging third strike on a four-seam fastball, a changeup, and a slider, respectively.

    Michael King pitch selection by count

    Observed pitch-type mix across 5 count groups (72 valid pitches).

    Observed pitch-type mix across 5 count groups (72 valid pitches).

    Observed pitch-type mix across 5 count groups (72 valid pitches).
  6. 5–9 · linked

    Player Influence

    Christian Yelich

    Christian Yelich scored two of Milwaukee's four runs, reaching base on a fifth-inning double and a ninth-inning walk before stealing second in the ninth.

  7. ▲6–▼6

    Bullpen Usage

    JoJo Romero · Jackson Merrill · Austin Hays

    In the sixth inning, JoJo Romero inherited a baserunner with no outs and struck out Jackson Merrill and Austin Hays before issuing a walk on 15 pitches.

  8. ▼ 7

    Player Influence

    Jake Cronenworth · Garrett Mitchell

    Jake Cronenworth was charged with two errors on a single seventh-inning play, committing a fielding error and a throwing error that allowed Garrett Mitchell to score.

  9. ▲8–▼8

    Late-inning Bullpen Leverage

    Aaron Ashby · Xander Bogaerts · Freddy Fermin

    In the top of the eighth inning with Milwaukee trailing 3-2, Aaron Ashby allowed consecutive singles before utilizing upper-90s sinkers to strike out Xander Bogaerts looking on a 100 mph pitch and induce an inning-ending double play from Freddy Fermin, preventing San Diego from extending its lead.

What this game can—and can’t tell us

SDMILShared

See what the reviewed evidence supports—and where its limits are.

  • The starters kept the board small enough to matter later

    High

    Both starting pitchers completed five innings with 72 pitches and one earned run allowed.

    Evidence

    • Logan Henderson · 5 IP · 2 H · 1 ER · 4 K · 3 BB · 72 pitches
    • Michael King · 5 IP · 3 H · 1 ER · 6 K · 0 BB · 72 pitches
    • Logan Henderson · 72 pitches · innings 1–6
    • Michael King · 72 pitches · innings 1–6
    • Score after inning 5: 1–1

    Not implied

    • Does not imply both pitchers exerted identical command or faced identical lineup pressure.
    • Does not establish season-long starter durability or quality.

    Limitations

    • Does not measure quality of contact or defensive support behind either starter.
    Logan HendersonMichael King
  • King stole one full inning from Milwaukee in the second

    Medium

    Michael King struck out Contreras, Mitchell, and Yelich in order in the second inning on three different pitch types for swinging strikes.

    Evidence

    Bottom 2

    • William Contreras vs Michael King
    • Garrett Mitchell vs Michael King
    • Christian Yelich vs Michael King
    • 4-Seam Fastball · 96.9 mph · Swinging Strike
    • Changeup · 88.1 mph · Swinging Strike
    • Slider · 85.9 mph · Swinging Strike
    • Contreras struck out swinging.
    • Mitchell struck out swinging.
    • Yelich struck out swinging.
    • Bottom 2 · William Contreras vs Michael King · Strikeout
    • Bottom 2 · Garrett Mitchell vs Michael King · Strikeout
    • Bottom 2 · Christian Yelich vs Michael King · Strikeout

    Not implied

    • Does not imply King maintained identical pitch selection or swing-and-miss effectiveness throughout the rest of the game.
    • Does not prove pre-game scouting design against those specific batters.

    Limitations

    • Does not establish pitch-tunneling technique or deceptive intent.
    Michael KingWilliam ContrerasGarrett MitchellChristian Yelich
  • France kept cashing two outs, but never bought space

    Medium

    Ty France accounted for two San Diego runs through two-out singles in the first and seventh innings and reached base three times.

    Evidence

    Top 1

    • Ty France vs Logan Henderson

    Top 7

    • Ty France vs Abner Uribe

    Top 1

    • France singled to center, Machado scored.

    Top 7

    • France singled to right, Tatis Jr. scored, Machado thrown out at third.
    • Ty France · 2-for-3 · 1 K
    • Final score 3–4

    Not implied

    • Does not imply France possesses superior clutch ability beyond this specific game.
    • Does not establish defensive positioning shortcomings by Milwaukee on either single.

    Limitations

    • Does not establish clutch hitting skill across a multi-game sample.
  • Ashby turned San Diego's best chance into a wasted inning

    Medium

    Ashby escaped a two-on, no-out jam in the eighth inning by striking out Bogaerts and inducing a double play using his sinker.

    Evidence

    Top 8

    • Jackson Merrill vs Aaron Ashby
    • Samad Taylor vs Aaron Ashby
    • Xander Bogaerts vs Aaron Ashby
    • Freddy Fermin vs Aaron Ashby
    • Sinker · 98.3 mph · In play, no out
    • Sinker · 98.7 mph · In play, no out
    • Sinker · 100 mph · Called Strike
    • Sinker · 97.8 mph · In play, out(s)
    • Merrill singled to right.
    • Taylor reached on bunt single to pitcher, Merrill to second.
    • Bogaerts struck out looking.
    • Fermin grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Taylor out at second.
    • Aaron Ashby · bullpen · 12 pitches · inning 8
    • Score after inning 7: 1–1

    Not implied

    • Does not prove Ashby had pre-planned targeting to induce a ground ball.
    • Does not imply San Diego's baserunning or hitting approach was flawed.

    Limitations

    • Does not establish managerial intent or private bullpen strategy.
    Milwaukee BrewersAaron AshbyXander BogaertsFreddy Fermin