MLB

October 23, 2026 · American Family Field

Tampa Bay Rays at Milwaukee Brewers Game Analysis — October 23, 2026

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TB000100001270
MIL20000010—380

Scoring path

Follow the scoring sequence from the first run to the final margin.

TBScoreMIL
  1. 1
    0–1
    Supports the analysis

    Yelich tripled to center, Chourio scored.

  2. 0–2
    Supports the analysis

    Contreras singled to left, Yelich scored.

  3. 4
    Supports the analysis

    Hicks grounded out to first, Aranda scored, Caminero to third.

    1–2
  4. 7
    1–3
    Supports the analysis

    Chourio singled to right, Pratt scored.

  5. 9
    Supports the analysis

    Hicks grounded out to second, Mateo scored, Caminero to second, Simpson to third. Tampa Bay Rays challenged: call on the field was overturned.

    2–3

Key observations by inning

Read the plays and performances in chronological order, or filter the view by team.

  1. ▲1–▼1

    Early Scoring

    Jackson Chourio · Christian Yelich · William Contreras · Nick Martinez

    In the bottom of the first inning, Jackson Chourio singled and scored on Christian Yelich's RBI triple, before William Contreras followed with an RBI single to give Milwaukee an early 2-0 lead.

    Nick Martinez pitch selection by count

    Observed pitch-type mix across 5 count groups (73 valid pitches).

    Observed pitch-type mix across 5 count groups (73 valid pitches).

    Observed pitch-type mix across 5 count groups (73 valid pitches).
  2. 1–8 · linked

    Player Influence

    William Contreras

    William Contreras reached base in three of four plate appearances for Milwaukee, recording two singles, a walk, and an RBI in the first inning.

  3. 1–9 · linked

    Batting Performance

    Jonathan Aranda

    Jonathan Aranda reached base in all four plate appearances for Tampa Bay, recording three singles against three different Milwaukee pitchers and drawing a walk that produced the Rays' first run in the fourth inning.

  4. 1–9 · linked

    Game Frame

    Game Frame

    The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Tampa Bay Rays 3-2, with all five runs scored across four separate innings and both teams combining for 15 hits without committing an error.

  5. 1–9 · linked

    Player Influence

    Chandler Simpson

    Chandler Simpson recorded two singles and stole a base in four plate appearances for Tampa Bay, while also striking out twice.

  6. ▲ 4

    Scoring Sequence

    Jonathan Aranda · Junior Caminero · Liam Hicks · Jacob Misiorowski

    Tampa Bay scored its first run in the fourth inning when Jonathan Aranda drew a leadoff walk, advanced to third on Junior Caminero's double, and came home on Liam Hicks's groundout.

  7. ▲ 6

    Matchup Effect

    Abner Uribe · Chandler Simpson · Jonathan Aranda

    Abner Uribe ended a sixth-inning Tampa Bay scoring threat by striking out Chandler Simpson while Jonathan Aranda was caught stealing second base on the same pitch.

  8. 6–8

    Bullpen Usage

    Steven Matz · Kevin Kelly · Garrett Cleavinger · Cole Sulser

    Tampa Bay utilized four relief pitchers over the final three innings, with Steven Matz, Kevin Kelly, Garrett Cleavinger, and Cole Sulser combining to allow one run on three hits and four walks.

  9. ▲7–▼7

    Two-out Run Scoring

    Jackson Chourio · Cooper Pratt · Kevin Kelly

    In the bottom of the seventh inning, Jackson Chourio hit a two-out RBI single on Kevin Kelly's first pitch to score Cooper Pratt from second base, extending Milwaukee's lead to 3-1 with an insurance run that ultimately stood as the margin of victory.

    Bottom of the 7th — bases and outs

    5 plate-appearance transitions in the bottom of inning 7.

    5 plate-appearance transitions in the bottom of inning 7.

    5 plate-appearance transitions in the bottom of inning 7.
  10. 7–8

    Late-inning Bullpen Bridge

    Aaron Ashby

    Aaron Ashby retired all five batters he faced across 1.2 scoreless relief innings, using a heavy sinker and offspeed offerings to generate three strikeouts and prevent Tampa Bay from advancing a baserunner in the seventh and eighth innings.

    pitches
    20
    innings appeared
    7–8
  11. ▲9–▼9

    Ninth-inning Save Situation

    Trevor Megill · Jonny DeLuca

    Trevor Megill navigated extreme ninth-inning leverage after loading the bases with one out, conceding an RBI groundout before using back-to-back knuckle curves to strike out Jonny DeLuca and strand the tying and winning runs in scoring position to earn the save.

    pitches
    20
    innings appeared
    9

    Milwaukee Brewers pitcher deployment

    Observed pitching-staff sequence by inning (4 pitchers, 3 subsequent).

    Observed pitching-staff sequence by inning (4 pitchers, 3 subsequent).

    Observed pitching-staff sequence by inning (4 pitchers, 3 subsequent).

What this game can—and can’t tell us

TBMILShared

See what the reviewed evidence supports—and where its limits are.

  • Milwaukee made the first dent before Tampa Bay could settle in

    High

    It is safe to state that Milwaukee took a 2-0 lead in the first inning through consecutive run-scoring hits by Yelich and Contreras following Chourio's leadoff single.

    Evidence

    Bottom 1

    • Jackson Chourio vs Nick Martinez
    • Christian Yelich vs Nick Martinez
    • William Contreras vs Nick Martinez
    • Pitch 1 : Ball In Play
    • Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    Bottom 1

    • Yelich tripled to center, Chourio scored.
    • Contreras singled to left, Yelich scored.
    • Score after inning 1: 0–2
    • Base/out transitions · Bottom 1

    Not implied

    • Does not imply Tampa Bay's starting pitcher lacked command of other pitches.
    • Does not imply Milwaukee planned to target specific pitch locations in the first inning.

    Limitations

    • Does not explain tactical pitch selection or managerial strategy during the inning.
    Milwaukee BrewersJackson ChourioChristian YelichWilliam ContrerasNick Martinez
  • Chourio's first-pitch RBI changed the price of the ninth

    Medium

    It is safe to state that Chourio's two-out first-pitch single provided a critical late-game insurance run that proved decisive in the one-run win.

    Evidence

    Bottom 7

    • Cooper Pratt vs Steven Matz
    • David Hamilton vs Steven Matz
    • Jackson Chourio vs Kevin Kelly
    • Sinker · 90.5 mph · In play, run(s)
    • Kelly relieved Matz
    • Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    Bottom 7

    • Chourio singled to right, Pratt scored.
    • Score after inning 7: 0–1
    • Base/out transitions · Bottom 7
    • Final score 2–3

    Not implied

    • Does not imply Kevin Kelly made an execution error or miscalled pitch.
    • Does not imply Chourio anticipated the specific pitch type before the at-bat.

    Limitations

    • Single-pitch outcome within a specific situational matchup.
    Milwaukee BrewersJackson ChourioCooper PrattKevin KellyTampa Bay Rays
  • Ashby's five outs kept the middle from turning

    Medium

    It is safe to state that Ashby executed a dominant five-out relief stint by combining his sinker with offspeed pitches to strike out three batters and allow no baserunners.

    Evidence

    • Aaron Ashby · bullpen · 20 pitches · innings 7–8
    • Aaron Ashby · 20 pitches · innings 7–8
    • Aaron Ashby · 1.2 IP · 0 H · 0 ER · 3 K · 0 BB · 20 pitches

    Top 7

    • Liam Hicks vs Aaron Ashby
    • Jonny DeLuca vs Aaron Ashby

    Top 8

    • Victor Mesa Jr. vs Aaron Ashby
    • Ben Williamson vs Aaron Ashby
    • Ryan Vilade vs Aaron Ashby
    • Slider · 84.9 mph · Swinging Strike
    • Sinker · 99.3 mph · Swinging Strike
    • Changeup · 92.6 mph · Swinging Strike
    • Aaron Ashby · Sinker · 55% usage
    • Aaron Ashby · Changeup · 20% usage

    Not implied

    • Does not imply Ashby has secured a permanent high-leverage late-inning bullpen role.
    • Does not prove Tampa Bay hitters had pre-existing scouting weaknesses against Ashby's pitch mix.

    Limitations

    • Covers only 5 batters faced and 20 pitches in this single relief appearance.
  • Megill had a run to spend and two curves to finish

    Medium

    It is safe to state that Megill preserved the one-run victory by executing breaking pitches to strike out DeLuca with the tying and go-ahead runs in scoring position.

    Evidence

    • Trevor Megill · bullpen · 20 pitches · inning 9
    • Trevor Megill · 20 pitches · inning 9
    • Trevor Megill · 1 IP · 2 H · 1 ER · 1 K · 1 BB · 20 pitches

    Top 9

    • Yandy Diaz vs Trevor Megill
    • Jonathan Aranda vs Trevor Megill
    • Chandler Simpson vs Trevor Megill
    • Junior Caminero vs Trevor Megill
    • Liam Hicks vs Trevor Megill
    • Jonny DeLuca vs Trevor Megill
    • Knuckle Curve · 89.6 mph · Called Strike
    • Knuckle Curve · 88.6 mph · Swinging Strike
    • Simpson stole second, Mateo stole third.

    Top 9

    • Hicks grounded out to second, Mateo scored, Caminero to second, Simpson to third. Tampa Bay Rays challenged: call on the field was overturned.
    • DeLuca struck out swinging.
    • Base/out transitions · Top 9
    • Final score 2–3

    Not implied

    • Does not imply Megill intentionally walked Caminero to load the bases.
    • Does not imply DeLuca has a systemic vulnerability against breaking balls.

    Limitations

    • Restricted to the specific game state and sequence of the ninth inning.
    Milwaukee BrewersTrevor MegillJonny DeLucaTampa Bay Rays